Nate Silver: 2010 Was An Aligning Election
Running statistical analysis of the 2010 election and comparing it to 2008, some trends emerge - and it suggests that instead of a realignment, we got an aligning election:
In 2008 — even though President Obama was on the ballot — his vote share was only a moderately good predictor of the results of the election to the House. Democrats won 16 seats in which Mr. Obama carried less than 40 percent of the vote, and 50 in which he had less than half of it.
After Tuesday, however — assuming that current results from the several races that remain uncalled by The Associated Press hold — Democrats will hold just 12 seats in which Mr. Obama failed to receive a majority of the vote (down from 50!) and just three seats in which he had 40 percent or less (down from 16).
Republicans, meanwhile, will now hold 55 seats in which Mr. Obama carried a majority in 2008 — up from 28. But mostly, they’re in places where Mr. Obama had only a slim majority. They’ll hold only 14 seats in which Mr. Obama had at least 55 percent of the vote (up from eight before). And they’ll hold just one seat, Illinois’s 10th Congressional District, in which Mr. Obama got at least 60 percent of the vote (he received 61 percent there instead); this figure is actually down from four seats before.